U.S. container import volumes are projected to remain depressed through the first half of 2026 as retailers grapple with persistent tariff uncertainty and trade policy instability, according to the National Retail Federation's latest Global Port Tracker report released this week.
The retail trade group forecasts year-over-year declines in six of the first eight months of 2026, with only May and June expected to show modest gains—largely attributed to favorable comparisons against the sharp import drop-off that followed former President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April 2025 .
While the escalating conflict in the Middle East has rattled global energy markets and disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold emphasized that the direct impact on U.S.-bound retail cargo remains limited. "Just because retailers don't import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn't mean the U.S. supply chain isn't affected by the turmoil there," Gold noted. "The supply chain is global, and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects" .
The report highlights that February import volumes fell 7.5 percent month-over-month and more than 4 percent compared to February 2025. March figures are expected to show only marginal improvement over February, with Lunar New Year timing distorting first-quarter results .
Looking ahead, the NRF anticipates TEU volumes will climb back above 2 million units monthly starting in April, though still representing a 5.6 percent year-over-year decline. May and June could see increases of 7.3 percent and 6.9 percent respectively, before declines resume in July (down 8 percent) and August (down 6 percent) .
The forecast comes as the Trump administration continues to adjust its tariff framework. While the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the president's initial IEEPA-based tariff program, the administration quickly reintroduced a 10 percent global baseline tariff and has recently modified duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and pharmaceutical products .
Fuel costs represent the most tangible Middle East impact on U.S. retailers so far. With Brent crude prices surging above $90 per barrel and Asian ports facing potential fuel shortages due to their dependence on Persian Gulf supplies, shipping surcharges are beginning to appear . However, NRF analysts maintain that these energy price pressures have not yet translated into significant cargo volume disruptions for American retailers.
For the first six months of 2026, the NRF now projects total U.S. container imports of approximately 12.21 million TEUs, representing a 2.5 percent decline from the same period in 2025 . The full-year 2025 total reached 25.4 million TEUs, essentially flat compared to 2024.
"With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen," Gold stated. "The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability" .