Rotterdam, 11 July 2025 — For the first time in a decade, European forwarders at TOC Europe 2025 voiced doubt that Sub-Saharan Africa–Europe volumes can keep growing, even after a short-lived Q2 spike. The continent’s fastest-growing trade lanes now point eastward.
CTS data show Sub-Saharan liftings to China and India jumped 31 % and 24 % respectively in Jan-May 2025, while liftings to North-Europe ports rose only 4 %. The eastbound share of Sub-Saharan exports has risen from 38 % in 2022 to 52 % in 2025.
EU customs confirm the trend: in 2023 the EU absorbed 33 % of Africa’s containerised exports, but provisional 2025 figures put that share at 28 %, its lowest since 2009, while China’s share climbed to 29 %, overtaking the EU for the first time.
Route snapshot (2025 YTD):
Lagos–Rotterdam: +3 % TEU, spot rate –2 % to $3,150/40’
Lagos–Ningbo: +37 % TEU, spot rate +8 % to $4,050/40’
Durban–Antwerp: +1 % TEU, spot rate –5 % to $2,880/40’
Durban–Mundra: +28 % TEU, spot rate +12 % to $3,760/40’
More than 65 % of the additional eastbound volumes are cobalt, manganese and copper concentrates from the DRC and Zambia—now classified as critical raw materials by Beijing. Europe’s cobalt import quota is expected to be fully allocated by August, pushing producers toward China and India where refining capacity is expanding fastest.
Infrastructure spending tells the story: $8.4 bn in AfCFTA-backed projects (mostly East Africa) targets the Indian Ocean, while only €1.2 bn of the EU’s Global Gateway has gone to West-African terminals since 2022.
Rotterdam-based Fracht AG says space to Europe is now discounted, yet 40’ reefers eastbound are already tight. CTS forecasts Sub-Saharan-to-Europe volumes to grow only 1.5 % in 2025, the weakest since 2016, while exports to Asia are set to rise 20 %. Unless Brussels matches Beijing’s infrastructure push, Europe risks becoming a back-haul for African produce.